-
思维是如何工作的
How Mind Works
-
Disciplines规则
- 认知科学 Cognitive Science
- 神经科学 Neural Science
- 心理学 Psychology
- 进化心理学 Evolutionary Psychology
- 机器学习 Machine Learning
- 人工智能 Artificial Intelligence
-
Theories理论
- 有限理性; 给人智慧的简单启发
Bounded Rationality; Simple Heuristics that Makes us Smart
- 社会性动物 Social Animal
- 作为人类思维窗口的语言
Language as a window into Human Mind
- 决策论 Decision Theory
- 演绎推理和归纳推理
Reasoning, Deductive and Inductive
- 论证理论 Argumentation Theory
- 贝叶斯推论 Bayesian Inference
-
认知谬误
Cognitive Fallacies
-
人类推理中的谬误
Fallacies in Human Reasoning
-
非形式谬误
Informal Fallacies
- 例如:假两难推理
e.g. False Dilemma
- 例如:相互关联并不意味着互有因果
e.g. Correlation doesn't imply Causation
- 例如:相当然的前后联系
e.g. Post Hoc
- 例如:把有待证实的关键性假设当作已经成立
e.g. Begging the Question
-
形式谬误
Formal Fallacies
- e.g. 否定前因Denying the Antecedent
- e.g. 肯定推论Affirming the Consequent
- e.g. 肯定分离内容Affirming a Disjunct
-
认知偏见
Cognitive Biases
- e.g. 从众效应Bandwagon Effect
- e.g. 权威偏见Authority Bias
- e.g. 认证偏见Confirmation Bias
- e.g. 框架效应Framing Effect
- e.g. 主观愿望Wishful Thinking
-
日常评判和决策中的谬误
Fallacies in daily Judgment and Decision Making
-
评判和决策
Judgment and Decision Making
- e.g. 认知失调和自我辩白
Cognitive Dissonance and Self-Justification
- e.g. 典型性,有效性和确定性
Representativeness, Availability and Anchoring
- e.g. 选择的悖论
Paradox of Choice
-
行为经济学
Behavioral Economics
- 为什么非常聪明的人也会犯猴子似的错误
Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes
- 怪诞行为学
Predictably Irrational
- 黑天鹅效应
Black Swan
-
切中要害的思维
Critical Thinking
-
问题是什么?
What's the problem?
- 先设定一个标准,以此衡量所有的事情
Set a yardstick first, and then measure everything against it.
-
假定条件是什么?
What're the assumptions?
-
无意识的假设非常危险
Unconscious Assumptions are Dangerous
- 使我们陷入麻烦的往往不是我们未知的事情,恰恰是我们深信不疑的错误
It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us into trouble. It's the things we know that just ain't so.
-
如何找出这些假设?
How to Smoke Out the Assumptions?
-
籍由提问
By asking questions
- 例行质疑:“其实这玩意未必要……”“我们真的得……?”
Routine Question: "It doesn't have to ..."; "Do we have to ... ?"
- 例行质疑:“这个并不一定意味着……”
Routine Question: "This doesn't necessarily mean ..."
- 例行质疑:“我们要是不这么做,会发生什么?”
Routine Question: "What would happen if we don't do this?"
-
籍由形式化推理过程
By formalizing the reasoning process
- 详细说明前提
Specify the Premise(s).
- 查看结论
Look at the Conclusion(s).
- 结论能紧扣前提吗?
Does the conclusion(s) necessarily follow the Premise(s)?
-
通过学习切中要害的思维法
By learning critical-thinking
- e.g. 错误类比False analogy
- e.g. 归纳中的问题Problem of Induction
-
事实是什么?
What're the facts?
- 如果你缺乏相关知识,你有假设
If you don't have knowledge, you have assumptions.
- 好好做功课,得到正确的事实
Do your homework, get the facts right.
- 例行质疑:“真的么?”
Routine Question: "Really?"
-
逻辑是什么?
Where's the logic?
- 例行质疑:“xx并不总是意味着xx!”
Routine Question: "... doesn't necessarily mean ...!"
- 例行质疑:“其实对xx来说并不是非要xx”
Routine Question: "It doesn't have to be ... to ...!"
- 例行质疑:“xx,那么为什么是那样的?”
Routine Question: "... and why is that?"
-
结论是什么?
What's the conclusion?
- 避免直接跳到结论;参考 认知捷径
Avoid jumping to conclusions; see Cognitive Shortcut.
- 例行质疑:“于是?”,“然后呢?”,“那么肿么样?”
Routine Question: "So?", "Then?", "So what?"
-
问题解决方法
Problem Solving
-
问题
Problems
-
众所周知定义清楚的问题
Problem often known and well defined
- e.g. 数学Math
- e.g. 算法Algorithms
-
你自己摸清楚定性的问题
You figure out what the problem is
-
我们每天遇到的问题
Problems we face everyday
- e.g. 财务上的决定financial decisions
- e.g. 时间管理time management
- e.g. 职业生涯career
- e.g. 人际关系relationship
- 通常的决策
Judgment and Decision Making in general
- 实际问题
Practical Problems
- 复合型决定
Complex Decisions
-
技巧
Techniques
- 例行质疑:“问题是神马?”
Routine Question: "What's the Problem?"
-
启发法
Heuristics
- e.g. 反复试验法Trial and Error
- e.g. 类比法Analogy
- e.g. 专门化Specialization
- e.g. 精简化Simplification
- e.g. 倒推法Working Backwards
- e.g. 头脑风暴Brainstorming
- e.g. 根本原因分析法Root Cause Analysis
- e.g. 侧面思考Lateral Thinking
-
决策
Decision Making
- 正反双方分析
Pros and Cons Analysis
- 关键因素分析
Key Factor Analysis
- 不确定状况下的选择
Choice under Uncertainty