1. 思维是如何工作的 How Mind Works
    1. Disciplines规则
      1. 认知科学 Cognitive Science
      2. 神经科学 Neural Science
      3. 心理学 Psychology
      4. 进化心理学 Evolutionary Psychology
      5. 机器学习 Machine Learning
      6. 人工智能 Artificial Intelligence
    2. Theories理论
      1. 有限理性; 给人智慧的简单启发 Bounded Rationality; Simple Heuristics that Makes us Smart
      2. 社会性动物 Social Animal
      3. 作为人类思维窗口的语言 Language as a window into Human Mind
      4. 决策论 Decision Theory
      5. 演绎推理和归纳推理 Reasoning, Deductive and Inductive
      6. 论证理论 Argumentation Theory
      7. 贝叶斯推论 Bayesian Inference
  2. 认知谬误 Cognitive Fallacies
    1. 人类推理中的谬误 Fallacies in Human Reasoning
      1. 非形式谬误 Informal Fallacies
        1. 例如:假两难推理 e.g. False Dilemma
        2. 例如:相互关联并不意味着互有因果 e.g. Correlation doesn't imply Causation
        3. 例如:相当然的前后联系 e.g. Post Hoc
        4. 例如:把有待证实的关键性假设当作已经成立 e.g. Begging the Question
      2. 形式谬误 Formal Fallacies
        1. e.g. 否定前因Denying the Antecedent
        2. e.g. 肯定推论Affirming the Consequent
        3. e.g. 肯定分离内容Affirming a Disjunct
      3. 认知偏见 Cognitive Biases
        1. e.g. 从众效应Bandwagon Effect
        2. e.g. 权威偏见Authority Bias
        3. e.g. 认证偏见Confirmation Bias
        4. e.g. 框架效应Framing Effect
        5. e.g. 主观愿望Wishful Thinking
    2. 日常评判和决策中的谬误 Fallacies in daily Judgment and Decision Making
      1. 评判和决策 Judgment and Decision Making
        1. e.g. 认知失调和自我辩白 Cognitive Dissonance and Self-Justification
        2. e.g. 典型性,有效性和确定性 Representativeness, Availability and Anchoring
        3. e.g. 选择的悖论 Paradox of Choice
      2. 行为经济学 Behavioral Economics
        1. 为什么非常聪明的人也会犯猴子似的错误 Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes
        2. 怪诞行为学 Predictably Irrational
        3. 黑天鹅效应 Black Swan
  3. 切中要害的思维 Critical Thinking
    1. 问题是什么? What's the problem?
      1. 先设定一个标准,以此衡量所有的事情 Set a yardstick first, and then measure everything against it.
    2. 假定条件是什么? What're the assumptions?
      1. 无意识的假设非常危险 Unconscious Assumptions are Dangerous
        1. 使我们陷入麻烦的往往不是我们未知的事情,恰恰是我们深信不疑的错误 It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us into trouble. It's the things we know that just ain't so.
      2. 如何找出这些假设? How to Smoke Out the Assumptions?
        1. 籍由提问 By asking questions
          1. 例行质疑:“其实这玩意未必要……”“我们真的得……?” Routine Question: "It doesn't have to ..."; "Do we have to ... ?"
          2. 例行质疑:“这个并不一定意味着……” Routine Question: "This doesn't necessarily mean ..."
          3. 例行质疑:“我们要是不这么做,会发生什么?” Routine Question: "What would happen if we don't do this?"
        2. 籍由形式化推理过程 By formalizing the reasoning process
          1. 详细说明前提 Specify the Premise(s).
          2. 查看结论 Look at the Conclusion(s).
          3. 结论能紧扣前提吗? Does the conclusion(s) necessarily follow the Premise(s)?
        3. 通过学习切中要害的思维法 By learning critical-thinking
          1. e.g. 错误类比False analogy
          2. e.g. 归纳中的问题Problem of Induction
    3. 事实是什么? What're the facts?
      1. 如果你缺乏相关知识,你有假设 If you don't have knowledge, you have assumptions.
      2. 好好做功课,得到正确的事实 Do your homework, get the facts right.
      3. 例行质疑:“真的么?” Routine Question: "Really?"
    4. 逻辑是什么? Where's the logic?
      1. 例行质疑:“xx并不总是意味着xx!” Routine Question: "... doesn't necessarily mean ...!"
      2. 例行质疑:“其实对xx来说并不是非要xx” Routine Question: "It doesn't have to be ... to ...!"
      3. 例行质疑:“xx,那么为什么是那样的?” Routine Question: "... and why is that?"
    5. 结论是什么? What's the conclusion?
      1. 避免直接跳到结论;参考 认知捷径 Avoid jumping to conclusions; see Cognitive Shortcut.
      2. 例行质疑:“于是?”,“然后呢?”,“那么肿么样?” Routine Question: "So?", "Then?", "So what?"
  4. 问题解决方法 Problem Solving
    1. 问题 Problems
      1. 众所周知定义清楚的问题 Problem often known and well defined
        1. e.g. 数学Math
        2. e.g. 算法Algorithms
      2. 你自己摸清楚定性的问题 You figure out what the problem is
        1. 我们每天遇到的问题 Problems we face everyday
          1. e.g. 财务上的决定financial decisions
          2. e.g. 时间管理time management
          3. e.g. 职业生涯career
          4. e.g. 人际关系relationship
        2. 通常的决策 Judgment and Decision Making in general
        3. 实际问题 Practical Problems
        4. 复合型决定 Complex Decisions
    2. 技巧 Techniques
      1. 例行质疑:“问题是神马?” Routine Question: "What's the Problem?"
      2. 启发法 Heuristics
        1. e.g. 反复试验法Trial and Error
        2. e.g. 类比法Analogy
        3. e.g. 专门化Specialization
        4. e.g. 精简化Simplification
        5. e.g. 倒推法Working Backwards
        6. e.g. 头脑风暴Brainstorming
        7. e.g. 根本原因分析法Root Cause Analysis
        8. e.g. 侧面思考Lateral Thinking
      3. 决策 Decision Making
        1. 正反双方分析 Pros and Cons Analysis
        2. 关键因素分析 Key Factor Analysis
        3. 不确定状况下的选择 Choice under Uncertainty