-
Scanning & Analysis
-
Intelligence
-
General social/ geographical context of the crime problem
- Location/ built environment
- Demographic patterns/ trends
- Historical and current action
-
Initiation and demand for action
- audits, emergent problems, referral and intake processes
- External initiatives to mobilise the preventive agency
-
The crime problem to be addressed
-
Definitional issues & action frameworks
- Eg whether a crime, safety or terror problem, an offender problem/case, an area problem
-
Aspects of crime problem, pattern of risk and its context
- Types of offenders
- MO - see tactical methods and procedures
- Target property damaged - see tactical methods
- Target premises - see tactical methods
- Target persons/ organisations - see tactical methods
- Owners/ managers of property/ premises - see role analysis
- Immediate physical and social context of event/s
- Wider physical and social context of event/s
- Timing of events during day, week or year
- Whether crime problem recent or of long-standing
-
Evidence of crime problem – sources of information and analysis
- Crime pattern analysis to identify existing patterns of risk
- Forecasting from known patterns of risk in similar circumstances
- Analysis of risk and protective factors for offending a) in potential offenders’ life circumstances and/or b) in geographical areas
- Interviews with actual/potential offenders
- Technical issues of reliability, validity, bias etc
-
Know-how in data collection & analysis
- Difficulties and tradeoffs encountered in collection or analysis, and any innovative approaches adopted
-
Significant harmful consequences of problem
- Immediate, including trauma, injury or financial cost
- Wider effects including fear, restriction of leisure, economic or domestic activity
-
Immediate causes, remote causes and risk factors for offending
-
Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity - causes
- Offender
- Predisposition
- Lack of resources to avoid crime
- Readiness to act
- Resources for committing crime
- Perception/ decision to act
- Presence/ telepresence
- Situation
- Target (human/ material/ informational
- Target enclosure
- Wider environment
- Absent/ incapable crime preventers
- crime promoters
-
Risk and protective factors eg CRAVED
- Concealable
- Removable
- Accessible
- Valuable
- Enjoyable
- Disposable
- Aims and aim-setting – at planning stage
-
Response
-
Intervention
-
Address causes of actions or events: weaken, block, remove Opportunity, reduce Motivation, influence Decisions and spoil performance
-
CPTED principles
- Surveillance
- Territoriality
- Defensible space
- Target hardening
- Image and Maintenance
- Activity support
-
Specific preventive methods
- 25 Techniques of Situational Crime Prevention based on increasing risk and effort to offender, reducing reward, and removing excuses and provocations
- Modifying crime precipitators
-
Problem Analysis Triangle
- Victim/target
- Offender
- Location
-
Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity - intervention principles
- Offender
- Early/ remedial modification of predisposition
- Supply of resources to avoid crime
- Reduce readiness to offend
- Restrict resources for committing crime
- Influence perception/ decision to act
- Restrict presence/ telepresence
- Situation
- Target hardening, removal, value reduction
- Create/harden target enclosure
- Modify motivational/ tactical aspects of wiider environment
- Install/ mobilise crime preventers
- Remove/ demobilise/ convert crime promoters
-
The D principles
- Influencing individual offenders
- Deter-known and unknown
- Detect
- Detain
- Defeat
- Deflect/ direct
- Deceive
- Disable/ deny weapon/ tool
- Discourage
- Demotivate
- Disconcert/ distract
- Influencing criminal groups
- Disrupt communications/ plans
- Distrust
- Dismantle
-
Prepare for mitigation of Harm to people, assets, system operation - to reduce effect of criminal action
-
All times
- Reassurance/ community safety
-
During attack
- Resist attack
- Limit immediate harm
-
After attack
- Mitigate immediate harm
- Limit knock-on/ propagated harm
-
Implementation - tasks
-
Institutional/ organisational contexts
- Institutional settings: civil, judicial and parajudicial
- Organisational arrangements: is action stand-alone, embedded in a particular organisation or part of a programme
- Recent or current transitions in institutional or organisational context
- Infrastructure: training, guidance, data systems etc
-
Mode of delivery of action
- Project
- Service
- Capacity-building only
-
Targeting of action
- The problem, behaviour or condition tackled (see Aim under Intelligence)
- Ecological level of action - whether it acts on individual people, places, communities
-
Targeting strategy
- Basis of selection including risk & protective factors, known causes, risk patterns (of people, hot-spots etc), or needs
- Principle of selection – Universal, Selective (e.g. at risk) or Indicated (e.g. convicted offenders, repeat victims)
- Coverage
- Targeting issues e.g. net-widening and efforts to avoid it
- Tailoring of action to context
-
Lifecycle/s of action
- Initiation
- Execution
- Exit
-
Basic execution process
- Inputs
-
Processes
- Practical implementation issues & solutions
- Outputs
-
Management, planning and organisational issues
- Setting of aims and objectives, including numerical targets: content, and how it was done
- Development, building and maintenance of human, material and informational capacity
- Scheduling, progress monitoring and quality assurance of operations
- Risk management
- Structures of internal management
- Structures of external management
- Change management and wider issues of adaptive capacity
-
Involvement - people and organisations
-
Partnership
-
Structural issues
- Purpose of partnership in outcome terms
- Operational, strategic, infrastructural
- Composition and structure
- Geographical scope
- Pooling/ contribution of resources
- Governance issues: responsibility, authority and accountability
- Environment of the partnership
-
Process issues
- Practical creation of partnership: including intelligence for planning the partnership
- Creation and maintenance of partnership climate
- Handling geographical and responsibility boundaries
- Which operational tasks the partnership undertakes
- Task-specific issues eg codes of practice on information exchange, service-level agreements on handling offenders etc
- Day-to-day partnership operations: including inter-partner communications, decision-making and tactical coordination; partnership management (including performance management) & leadership
- Working relationship between tactical & strategic levels
- Sustainability of partnership
- Dismantling or disengagement of partnership
-
Mobilisation
-
CLAIMED process
- Clarify roles, responsibilities, tasks
- Locate/ identify appropriate agents or organisations to undertake roles etc
- Outreach
- Alert them about problem and their role in causation/ solution
- Inform them about nature, patterns, causes and solutions
- Motivate them
- Incentives
- Self-interest
- Duty/ right thing to do
- Name & shame
- Law/ sanctions
- Role model
- Empower them
- Capacity-building including training, equipment, information, guidance, money
- Legal powers
- Alleviation of constraints
- Direct them through standards, objectives etc
- Sustainability of mobilisation
- How/ why mobilisation ended
-
Multiple mobilisation
- Implementation chains/nets
- Systems of Involvement
- Gateway mobilisations - referral to police/ other agencies
- Conflicts, constraints and issues, and how resolved
- Climate setting
-
Other:
- Intel for Involvement
- Accountability
- Building collaborative capacity
- Communication
- Consultation
- Demand
- Risks & blockages
-
Assessment
-
Impact
-
Process evaluation
- Success and failure of implementing each task
- Whether the task, if successfully implemented to adequate quality, delivered the desired immediate result
- Whether the task engendered positive or negative side-effects in crime or other spheres and how these happened
- Enablers and constraints, conflicts, tradeoffs and synergies, collaboration and competition behind the successes and failures
- How the process problems encountered were resolved or avoided, how benefits were capitalised on and failures coped with
- Generic qualities of implementation eg adaptability and improvement, responsiveness and deliverability
- Existing benchmarks applied and/or new ones indicated
- Task-specific techniques for evaluating and quality-assuring particular processes
- Overall methods of process evaluation/quality assurance themselves (e.g. observation, interview, document analysis) and how rigorous they were
- The relationship between evaluators and practitioners, including independence and whether formative/summative evaluation
-
Impact evaluation - What Works
- Aims of intervention
-
Context of evaluation
- Evaluation is internal or external to the implementing organisation
- Evaluation is independent or not independent
- Type of evaluators – academic, commercial consultant, practitioner
- Formative or summative evaluation
- Routine evaluation or a one-off exercise
- Orientation – whether evaluation covered impact, process or both
- Climate of understanding and acceptance of impact evaluation with stakeholders
-
Methodology of evaluation
- Approach – e.g. Realistic, Theories of Change, Experimental, qualitative
- Design, e.g. before-after x action-control (and perhaps how this relates to methodological quality scales e.g. Maryland scale)
- Basic parameters eg output measures, and intermediate and ultimate outcome measures (e.g. self-reported offending, police recorded crime figures) sample size and units (e.g. individuals, families, neighbourhoods), time periods
- Statistical testing – methods and their justification, power considerations etc
- Problems, issues and tradeoffs in the above, and any practical resolutions worth sharing
-
Results of evaluation
- Main results
- Change in intermediate or ultimate outcome measures?
- Attributable to the intervention?
- Confined to subsets of sites/ individuals?
- Adaptive reactions by criminals to intervention?
- How did intervention work - by what mechanisms, dependent on what contextual factors? Were latter essential or merely boosters?
- Which ingredients were essential to any impact? Which boosted impact?
- Harmful side effects on security? Or on other values?
- Beneficial side effects? Were these from the Intervention itself or from Implementation/ Involvement actions?
- How big and How cost-effective was attributable change - gross, or net of offender adaptations/ other side effects?
- How can harmful side-effects be reduced and beneficial ones increased?
- How big and how cost-effective was the gross attributable change? The attributable change net of offender adaptations and other side-effects on crime?
- How big and how cost-effective was the gross attributable change? The attributable change net of offender adaptations and other side-effects on crime?
- How durable or sustainable was the impact?
- If no change in desired direction, to which task/s was failure attributable?
- How far did the intervention meet its aims and any targets?
- What were the limitations on performance and how might these be alleviated through improvements?
- Wider performance/ selection measures
- How responsive and scalable to crime/safety problems was the action?
- Prioritisation of community safety action in terms of severity of consequences of crime/safety problems (and perhaps in line with wider policy targets eg transport business)
- Accurate targeting on needs of victim and wider society – intervening universally or selectively as appropriate; and on causes of crime/safety problem – intervening at appropriate levels from local to international
- Coverage on the ground, in terms of what proportion of a given crime problem the policy aims to tackle
- Over what timescale did the Implementation/ Involvement occur, did the Intervention take effect, did the Impact reliably become apparent?
- How legitimate or acceptable were the preventive actions, within the wider population, within minority subgroups, or even among offenders?